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What is log-normal distribution?

The log-normal distribution is a continuous probability distribution that describes a random variable whose logarithm follows a normal distribution. This type of distribution is particularly useful for modeling positive and skewed variables, such as income, stock prices, and population sizes. The log-normal distribution is defined by two parameters: the mean (μ\mu) and the standard deviation (σ\sigma) of the logarithm of the variable.

The probability density function (PDF) of the log-normal distribution is expressed as:

f(x)=1xσ2πe(ln(x)μ)22σ2f(x) = \frac{1}{x \sigma \sqrt{2\pi}} e^{-\frac{(\ln(x) - \mu)^2}{2\sigma^2}}

In this equation, xx represents the value of the random variable, μ\mu denotes the mean of the logarithm of the variable, σ\sigma signifies the standard deviation of the logarithm, and ee is the base of the natural logarithm.

The cumulative distribution function (CDF) for the log-normal distribution can be represented as:

F(x)=Φ(ln(x)μσ)F(x) = \Phi\left(\frac{\ln(x) - \mu}{\sigma}\right)

Here, Φ\Phi indicates the cumulative distribution function of the standard normal distribution.

The expected value (mean) of a log-normally distributed random variable is given by:

E(X)=eμ+σ22E(X) = e^{\mu + \frac{\sigma^2}{2}}

Meanwhile, the variance of this distribution is calculated using the formula:

Var(X)=(eσ21)e2μ+σ2\text{Var}(X) = \left(e^{\sigma^2} - 1\right) e^{2\mu + \sigma^2}

The log-normal distribution is widely applied in various fields, particularly in finance and economics, to model asset prices and returns. It is also utilized in biology for modeling population sizes and growth rates.

Answered by: Prof. Michael Lewis
IB Physics Tutor
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