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How do you find the probability of drawing two aces without replacement?

To determine the probability of drawing two aces consecutively without replacement, we can multiply the probabilities of each individual draw.

When drawing cards without replacement, the total number of cards in the deck decreases with each draw. A standard deck contains 5252 cards, which includes 44 aces.

First, we calculate the probability of drawing an ace on the first attempt. Since there are 44 aces in a deck of 5252 cards, the probability is given by:

P(first ace)=452=113.P(\text{first ace}) = \frac{4}{52} = \frac{1}{13}.

Next, if you successfully draw an ace, there will be 5151 cards remaining in the deck, along with 33 aces still available. The probability of drawing a second ace at this point is:

P(second acefirst ace)=351=117.P(\text{second ace} \mid \text{first ace}) = \frac{3}{51} = \frac{1}{17}.

To find the overall probability of both events occurring—drawing an ace first and then drawing a second ace—we multiply the probabilities of the two individual events:

P(two aces)=P(first ace)×P(second acefirst ace)=452×351.P(\text{two aces}) = P(\text{first ace}) \times P(\text{second ace} \mid \text{first ace}) = \frac{4}{52} \times \frac{3}{51}.

Carrying out this multiplication, we have:

P(two aces)=452×351=113×117=1221.P(\text{two aces}) = \frac{4}{52} \times \frac{3}{51} = \frac{1}{13} \times \frac{1}{17} = \frac{1}{221}.

Therefore, the probability of drawing two aces in succession without replacement is

1221.\frac{1}{221}.
Answered by: Prof. Michael Lewis
IB Physics Tutor
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