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How do you determine the conditional probability using a Venn diagram?

To determine conditional probability using a Venn diagram, you need to identify the overlapping region of the events and divide it by the area corresponding to the given event.

A Venn diagram is a visual representation that illustrates different events as circles within a universal set. To find the conditional probability of event AA given event BB, denoted as P(AB)P(A|B), you should concentrate on the areas represented by these circles.

First, locate the overlapping region between circles AA and BB. This overlapping area represents the intersection of events AA and BB, denoted as ABA \cap B. The intersection contains the outcomes that are common to both events.

Next, determine the area of the circle representing event BB. This area encompasses all possible outcomes where event BB occurs. The conditional probability P(AB)P(A|B) is then calculated by dividing the area of the intersection (AB)(A \cap B) by the area of event BB. Mathematically, this is expressed as:

P(AB)=P(AB)P(B)P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)}

For example, in a Venn diagram where the area of ABA \cap B is 0.20.2 and the area of BB is 0.50.5, the conditional probability can be calculated as follows:

P(AB)=0.20.5=0.4P(A|B) = \frac{0.2}{0.5} = 0.4

This result indicates that, given event BB has occurred, there is a 40%40\% chance that event AA will also occur. Utilizing Venn diagrams not only aids in visualizing the relationships between different events but also simplifies the calculation of conditional probabilities.

Answered by: Prof. Peter Brown
IB Maths Tutor
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